Publication: ‘Why Goodluck Jonathan Lost the Nigerian Presidential Election of 2015’

Our publication (with colleague Dr Olly Owen) in the July edition of the journal, African Affairs is out. We wrote a brief on the Nigerian presidential election in March 2015, assessing why the election was exceptional in many respects, why many previous predictions including ours of a runoff or an outright Jonathan/PDP victory did not come to pass, and why and how Goodluck Jonathan and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) lost the elections.

An e-version is available on the African Affairs website here:

‘Why Goodluck Jonathan Lost the Nigerian Presidential Election of 2015’Read More »

Speaking at Chatham House Event on Elections, Boko Haram and Security in Nigeria

I will be participating in a panel, at an event organised by the Royal Institute of International Affairs, aka Chatham House. The title is: Elections, Boko Haram and Security: Assessing and Addressing Nigeria’s Complex Challenges. It is taking place at Chatham House offices in London, on 9 December 2014, from 9.30 am to 12 noon GMT.

I will be speaking on the political landscape, the context, the key actors and forecasts of the possible outcomes of the 2015 elections in Nigeria. This will be largely based on the ongoing elections forecasts by my colleague, Olly Owen and I.

The event will be live streamed, and will be made available from 9:30 on the Chatham House website.

Here is an overview:Read More »

Incumbency and Opportunity: Forecasting Nigeria’s 2015 Elections

For months, my colleague, Dr. Oliver Owen and I have been working on some forecasting of Nigeria 2015 elections based on 2011 dynamics. The draft findings were recently posted on African Arguments HERE. I am re-posting it below.

We welcome all comments, suggestions, critiques etc as we continue to refine our understanding of this rapidly changing and complex situation.

HEADLINE FINDINGSRead More »